So I just beat Royal about 2 weeks ago and had an absolute blast. 10/10 would do again
Whist playing, however, I actually made a list of everything I personally discovered, though some things may be wrong.
If you want to add anything to the list, suggestions are appreciated!! And if you notice any mistakes, please tell me and I'll fix it up a bit, thanks!!
Oh, and there are
no 3rd semester spoilers! I only wrote down things between the first day and Christmas day, so don't worry about anything too major in this post djsjshks and I didn't write much about any of the Palaces besides from story related things
Anyway, here's literally everything I wrote down!! Enjoy, my dudes 🤠
The Atlus/Criwear intros have now been improved, with Atlus's intro having a bit of Joker at the start doing Jokery things
The loading screen for starting up the game now includes the PTs logo with 3 spotlights
Palace "distortions" that can be seen surrounding the screen now have a new look
You can now see the sillohetes of future party members in the Casino
The dialogue between Futaba and Ryuji are now actual dialogue boxes, not side dialogue that you'd see in Mementos
Loading screens are SO much faster and the "walking" loading screens now include more people
You can see Takemi walking towards the clinic when you arrive in Yogen
The scene after you cleanup your room, and going to school is now fully voiced
Sojiro generally has a kinder tone
The "New day" screen now has gone through some improvements. The clouds now move!!
Kawakami will accidentally hand you something whilst giving you your student ID. She quickly takes it back though before you can see it. Most likely maid service stuff
The ride back home now has additional dialogue of the road being extra packed at the end of Sojiro's monologue
You can meet Ohya interrogating a Station officer about the train crash
Arsène now has an "è" in his name
Arsène also talks with a "shouting" dialogue box. It's like a normal dialogue box, but it's shouting now
Not sure if this was in the original or not, but Ryuji has a bit of extra dialogue for him throwing the key away (not much, just a simple "ngh" but still)
The "ugh woe is me I'm a teacher and he's late boo hoo" is now voiced
A fuck tone of dialogue has been rewritten to sound better. Definitely an improvement
Sae now mentions what Kamoshida's crimes were ("He was guilty of everything - the abuse, the... violations...") (I think I'm not sure tho jdhdgh)
Kawakami when shittalking Ryuji will now get cutoff as soon as he approaches
While Ryuji waits for you on the roof, you can find Haru on the 3rd floor talking to a teacher!!! The teacher says how they'll leave the rooftop open so she go to the planters that she volunteered to take care of
The planters are already on the rooftop. I'm not sure if it was there last time in the original, but if it's not, it's a cool touch lmao
Sojiro's scolding for ditching half a day is now rewritten a bit +new dialogue options for Akiren
New dialogue from Justine about how neglecting your fate will lead to his death
New Kasumi scene
New Ushimaru question (The answer is Villians, or C)
New student thoughts scene talking about Kasumi
Kamoshida + Ann scene is now voiced + rewritten
Ryuji's search for the castle is now voiced (though it could've been in the original, in not sure)
Palaces now start at 40% security when you enter instead of 0%
After going through the Palace and meeting Morgana again, the dialogue of them going back into the Palace + so much more that I'm not bothered to write is now voiced
Safe room enterences are now all wiggly and distorted
Ammo is now replenished after battles
Morgana will ask after the gun tutorial if you want to directly command him or act freely instead of making new players go to the menu and find it
New scene of Ryuji and you discussing plans to take down Kamoshida + Goro and Sae walking in the background
New IM background. Messages now have sakura petals floating in the background
Whilst you're stuck at Leblanc, unable to go out, you can up all your stats! Studying at the booth helps your Knowledge, making Coffee ups your Charm, making Curry helps your guts, you can now clean Leblanc to up your Kindness (+some points for Sojiro if he's there) and making Tools helps your Proficiency!
Ann + Shiho can be seen walking in the background at 4/13
Some students walking to school now have voices
After the rally, Ryuji complaints about Kamoshida are now voiced
One victim of Kamoshida that you interrogate now has a voice
Students you can listen into now have a slighty darker "chatter" icon once you talk to them. Same with the "whisper" icon
Wrong answers to Ryuji's question about any names turning up are now voiced
After school when Morgana tells you about changing hearts, there's a little scene where you can get the students options on Ann
The scene after you chase Ann is now voiced
Ryuji post-suicide scene is now voiced
Makoto can be found post-suicide scene right outside the courtyard talking to a teacher about Shiho's suicide (Teacher's worried about it turning into a scandal while Makoto's like "bro wtf what about the fucking student??? Huh????")
Ryuji post running off to the PE office is now voiced
Ryuji shakes his arms when he gets pissed off at Kamoshida
Shadow Kamoshida's speech to the Knights after you enter the palace is now voiced + the scene after that
When a new weapon is found in a treasure chest, the person it belongs to will ask if you want to equip the item
After Ann's awakening, there's a little scene of the crew returning to the real world and talking about what the hell just happened
Sae's dialogue about Ann has changed
Sojiro tells you to "Stay upstairs while we're open for business." Not sure if it's in the original, but it's also voiced
Takemi has a new voice actor!!!
God, fuck, there's so many new voice lines, I'm not gonna put them in anymore since there's so MANY. I'll just mention important scenes that have voices from now on
Friends that go to Shujin will sometimes catch up to you and you'll both walk to school together
Some new people appear on Yongen street when you go to Takemi's for the first time! There's a stern old man who can't hear you (he thinks you're talking about Kindergarten), there's a talkative women (who actually mentions a "very good doctor who's very reliable." Possibly the Doc from Takemi's Route?) And a sick man who says he wants to go in, but doesn't have the guts. (alluding to Takemi needing Guts to rank up)
Iwai's first meeting is now voiced
Kawakami will talk to you after Kamoshida tries to get you expelled. There's now a new scene with Kawakami, Kamoshida and Kasumi
New student comments about you + Kasumi
There are new "thoughts" when quick traveling down near the lower right-hand side of the screen that give you hints (e.g. when hovering over the Library, it says "I think I could improve my Knowledge...")
By sitting on the toilet, you can find out how close you are to improving your stats
You can see your friends (Makoto, Haru, ect) walk to school
New Hiruta question (The answer is they're both the same, or C)
There is now a tutorial for baton passing since it's no longer a confidant ability
Chests now have a weird glitchy sound to them
Some items will give you some additional moves (Wind Ring will give you Garu, ect)
The twins will have new features for you in the Velvet room after you secure the route to the treasure.
The "Next Day" screen's weather will change depending on the weather in game
On 4/21, you can see Makoto and Sae hanging out in the background
The "Next Day" screen will also change when you send the calling card! A card will fly into the date instead of a dagger and the sky will become black and red
You cannot resell guns to Iwai anymore
The Palace security will actually go up to 100% when you send the Calling Card, not 99% like in the original
The Ass Chalice now has a sound effect for when you break it
Shiho and Mishima now appears as apart of Kamoshida's boss fight
New question, forgot which teacher tho (the answer is D, or all of them)
Morgana will tell you to work on your Kindness so you can talk to Ann
Confidants will now sometimes call you
Confidants will also have a little after scene after you hang out with them, mostly by phone call
The amount of people on the train will change depending on the time of day
You can get multiple choices for what to buy from the Home shopping channel now
Teachers will now sometimes call on your dumbass friends and ask them questions. Be a bro and help them out
New Kawakami question (answer is B, you stand by it no matter what, and then C, you have a duty to correct it)
Sometimes, when you're at the trainstation, confidants will come to talk to you. They are now voiced
New Usami question (the answer is B, or Four Colour Theorem)
Achievements for destroying Palaces have different titles now
Walking around the Wilton Buffet to get food is now voiced
Thieves Den, baby!!!!!!
Kawakami's lecture about Kamoshida is now voiced
When Kawakami goes on to explain multiple personalities and stuff like that, Akiren sits up a bit
There are more Chalk throwings by Ushimaru
The Library assistant will actually apologize to you if you spend enough time at the library!
New Kawakami question (Answer is Fatal Woman, or C)
The Monamobile will now purr when you rub the touch pad, and will yowl when you press it
Ryuji's Rank 5 now starts with a little scene of you two entering the alley to Protein Lovers gym (probably to show players where the gym is)
You can now also quick travel to the gym when you enter it
New Inui question (The answer is the Heian period, or C)
When traveling to places such as Inokashira Park, the windows on the train can change depending on the weather and scenery
New scene on 5/11. A school assembly is apparently happening on 5/13 after exams. Enter Maruki (He's the Counciler!!)
Maruki can now ask you questions in the classroom (Answer is the Placebo effect, or C)
The Morgana train button mash incident is now voiced
New scene on how to get to Madarame's shack
New Inui question (the answer is Hokusai Katsushika, or B)
New Usami question (the answer is 1:1.414, or B)
Treasure demon fights now have a new effect for when you enter battles with them (not unlike Disaster enemies, but this time it's yellow and sparkly)
New Chouno question (Answer is Together, or C, then Senses, or B, and then "Senses coming together," or B)
On 5/24, Kawakami announces a public cleanup campaign that the school will be participating in on the 30th
In Madarame's Palace, instead of you having to travel all the way back to the beginning to traverse the paintings, you can hop back in where you exited out of
Madarame's security guard is now no longer origami man, but instead it's this weird, blue angel dude with like a seashell horn?? Sorry idk all of the Persona names
New Kawakami question (The answer is Authur Conan Doyle, or B)
Operation Maidwatch is now voiced!
New Maruki class/question (The answer is the Halo effect, or B)
New scene with Ryuji, we're going to Kichijoji, baby!!!
When you unlock Lockdown during the Strength confidant, Lockdown will have a new feature called Incense. Incense will improve your Persona's focus and gives them more strength. You can find Incense not only in the Metaverse, but in daily life too.
The day when Ryuji forgets to change over to his Summer uniform, or 6/6, he will now catch up to you in the right uniform
The students walking around in the loading screens are now wearing their summer uniforms
Ann now wears a clover necklace with her Summer uniform (in her sprite atleast. Not sure if that was in the original)
Even MORE chalk throwing incidents with Ushimaru
New Kasumi scene
New Hiruta question (The answer is the number of legs, or C)
New Public Thoughts scene discussing Akechi and the Phantom Thieves (this is right before the Social Studies trip)
New Maruki class/question (The answer is Controlling public thought, or C)
Not sure if it's just me, but Kobayakawa seems a bit more of an asshole to Makoto
You actually exchange numbers with Akechi this time
New Hiruta question (The answer is Green, or B)
New Ushimaru question (The answer is Coins, or B)
Kinda newish scene of Makoto/Sae sister time? It's the same dialogue, but they're not eating this time and instead are talking in their living room
New scene of Makoto and Iida (the guy who got blackmailed by Kaneshiro and co.)
New scene of you and Ryuji finding the right line to take you to Shinjuku
The two trolls of Shinjuku scene has been rewritten.
New Usami question and Ann needs help answering it (The answer is Smartphone, or B)
Kaneshiro's introduction is now slighty different (the camera focuses on him talking to Makoto before zooming out and seeing her struggling on the floor)
New Inui question (The answer is a Pope, or C)
Kawakami's IM pfp has now been changed to her maid outfit
New scene on 6/25. Morgana/Ann's showtime introduction
When you enter Kaneshiro's palace, a dog enemy will spot you and will initiate a battle. You will be able to trigger Ann/Morgana's showtime!
New technical tutorial in the middle of Kaneshiro's palace since this is the first time you encounter enemies without weaknesses
Treasure demons will now sometimes appear in battles with other enemies
Kaneshiro's security cameras now have a sound effect for when they go out
In Kaneshiro's Palace, there's a miniboss right before the giant lock. In the og, right as you walked down the stairs, you were forced to fight before you could save in the safe room behind you. Now, in Royal, you can save before going to fight! (Credit to
u/Theroonco for this fact!!)
Kaneshiro's palace now has golden doors you need to pay for to open up (Specifically 10,000 yen.) Fortunately, you can just beat the shit out of them to get them to open.
Kaneshiro's Guard near the end of the palace has been changed. Instead of Armless Brainless mcgee it's horse skeleton man with weird hat (again, idk persona names fdjdhsk)
Special animations will play for Caroline and Justice when lockdown is in effect
New lines from Caroline/Justine when lockdown is in effect
New Chouno question (The answer is Dogs, or C)
On 6/28, new scene with Ryuji/Makoto for their showtime introduction though the date may differ depending on your playthrough. I got mine just as I was about to send the calling card, so who knows?
New Kawakami question (The answer is Gold, or B)
Kaneshiro's entire first phase has been deleted. Instead, you just skip to Piggytron
Kaneshiro also now has 3 phases
New Inui question (The answer is Barbarian's Head, or C)
New Chouno question (The answer is Julius and Augustus, or B)
New Kawakami question (The answer is The Milky Way, or B and then Soumen Noodles, or A)
New Usami question (The answer is a Triangle, or D)
New Maruki class/question (The answer is Memories that last for a long time, or B, then Infinite, or C and finally Forever, or C)
New Makoto scene
New Kasumi/Goro scene (I literally gasped outloud as soon as I saw him I'm not kidding that really caught me by surprise dkdkshhs)
New Inui question (The answer is Thievery, or D)
New Maruki/Makoto scene
New scene with some Gossiping students taking shit about Kasumi and Maruki
New scene on 7/17!!! Festival, baby!!!!! + Ryuji/Yusuke showtime introduction
On the day of the fireworks festival, on the train loading screens, you can see people dressed up in Yukatas!
Not sure if it was in the game last time, but there's now dialogue of Medjed claiming to be modern day Robin Hoods
New scene with Ryuji asking you to check with people in your neighbourhood about Futaba
You can no longer slide down the sand in front of Futaba's Palace while in your normal attire
Anubis will now warn you if he'll perform Mudoon or Hamaon (Anublis tips towards Curse (Mudoon) / Bless (Hamaon) or Anus reset balance (if Anubis decides to stop the Insta kills))
New mementos rooms
New Treasure Demon dialogue if you already have that Treasure Demon in your party
I've also noticed that there are a lot more Treasure demons in Mementos, whether they spawn in or appear right after battle with another enemy
You can sometimes fall into the ground in Mementos
I'm not sure if this was in the original, but you cannot hang out with your confidants in certain areas if the weather is bad
The Big Bang challenge without the special on is 2000 yen on the burger's second phase and 2500 yen on burger's final form
Cognitive Wakaba's 1st phase has now been sped up. She will now dive down on her third turn
New animations for Futaba working in Necronomicon whilst she is talking to Sphinx Wakaba
New Cognitive Sphinx Wakaba + Futaba Dialogue
Just as jobs can now text you and ask if you can come in, Lala can now text you and ask if you can take a shift. She even has a unique Profile colour!
Also, more people will come in on Sundays to Crossroads. Instead of receiving 7200 yen, you'll get 12000 yen instead for your hard work
Kasumi's ending text (Unbreakable bond) is now different. Also, I think it was a different voice?? It said you gained a glimpse, not the ultimate secret though. Very interesting
Also, there's no new Persona for you to fuse for her and Kasumi herself doesn't get a new persona (I finished this before she even awakened so huh??? Wha???)
Futaba's integration into the PTs is now voiced
The Shinjuku Trolls/Lobster incident is now voiced
New scene of the Gang hanging out at the beach (it's animated, but it's one of the 3D ones with the models)
The Movie Theatre Mementos request is now right after Medjed's takedown, and you do not need to search for the name this time as Mishima just gives it to you. You can still find Yasuo Jochi (the target) at the movie theatre threating the old man
New scene on 8/30. Ryuji didn't do his Summer homework
The Takases (Kawakami's blackmail no-good doers) turn into the butterfly man and green girl fairy now (I think. I could've sworn they turned into a Succubus and an Incubus but who knows? I do remember fighting the enemies they turn into now though so again, who knows?)
Naguri (the guy that attacks indiscriminately and can be found out through gossip in the Flower shop) is also now a Kin Ki (again, not sure if it was in the og but I do not remember fighting a Kin Ki)
New Inui question (The answer is Prosperity, or C)
New Maruki class (The answer is Chronostasis, or B) (I'm also pretty sure the second hand stopping question was in the og, but now Maruki asks you the question.)
Not sure if this is actually in the fight, but whilst I was exploring the Thieves Den, I noticed Kamoshida (Monster oogly bloogly form) had a mini him on the Ann Cup.
The Yusuke Hawaii incident is now voiced
New scene with Kawakami
New scene with Maruki, Sojiro, Futaba and Morgana
New scene of the gang + Kasumi shopping for soveineurs (with an additional Haru in the background!!) (Also, unfortunately, instead of the original scene of Kasumi scaring you (she originally said "Konichi-WA") being translated to "Alo-HA", it just got translated to "Hello, SENPAI" which kinda saddens me but it's eh)
When you get back from Hawaii, if you say "Aloha!" to Futaba, instead of saying "He's been influenced..." she now says "He's been Hawaiianized..." Not sure why they changed it, I mean, it was fine to begin with but it's whatever ¯_(ツ)_/¯
New scene with Ryuji and Kasumi
The conversation with Futaba about Morgana's fissy fit is now voiced
New Inui question (The answer is Money loans for collateral, or A)
If you interact with the stuff in your room whilst the game forces you to sleep and Morgana is missing, you'll get text like "There's something that relates to the cat... I'm worried about Morgana..." (E.g if you interact with your work bench, it says "A cat left paw prints in the dust... I'm worried about Morgana..."
Haru's Metaverse outfit sprites have been remade
After Morgana's + Haru's little spiel, if you check on the stuff in your room again whilst the game tells you to go the fuck to sleep, it'll have different dialogue. It's mostly Akiren wondering who "Beauty Thief" was and being worried about Morgana
Again, even more dialogue about Morgana and Haru on the next day. "Why didn't I noticed that something was bothering Morgana...?" oh Akiren you sweet little child hit me right in the Kokoro
New Chouno question (The answer is Cats eating human tongues, or B)
The Morgana chase scene is now voiced
Finally, when Morgana returns, he'll comment on everything saying shit like "Oooh this place is as drab as ever lmao I'm glad to be back ahahah"
New Kawakami question (The answer is Centeral Europe, or B)
ALSO VERY IMPORTANT!!! If you check on your calendar, you can see Akiren's thoughts and what he did that day!!! I didn't know until now djdjdh (also, Hawaii has some cool stamps?? Stickers?? Probably not stickers but they're cool lmao (ALSO THE BIG BANG CHALLENGES ARE CALLED "TRIAL BY BURGER" KSJDHDHH)
New Usami question (The answer is 20 white, 12 black or B)
New scene of Yusuke/Ann for their showtime
The Sad Oh no Okumura Robot dying wahh scene is now voiced
Maruki can now meet you at the station, surprisingly
New scene with Haru and Morgana for their Showtime
New Ushimaru question (The answer is Imperial Household Agency, or B)
God, I tried to not include that much Palace stuff in here - especially the bosses - but holy fucking shit Okumura is fucking hard as shit and it took me 3 tries to beat him oh my god beware of the Borger man and forehead girl I'm actually shaking as I'm writing this just know I hate Okumura and his stupid bossfight
New scene with Kasumi, Maruki and some random teacher
New Hiruta question (The answer is Stars, or B)
New scene with Kasumi and anime scene!! and WHOOPS we've accidentally entered the metaverse WHAT
Gun Customisation has a new screen and new mechanics
You can also now instantly go to the Gun Customisation screen when you buy a new gun
New Inui question (The answer is Joseph-Igance Guillotin, or D)
New Usami question (The answer is Bouba, or B)
New scene with Kawakami at lunch at 10/11 telling you to go see Maruki + Kasumi and Maruki afterwards
New scene with Maruki and Haru on 10/20
New Usami question (The answer is 15, or A)
Instead of Makoto getting Akechi's number from Sae, we give his number directly to Makoto since we actually exchange contact info this time
New Maruki class/question (The answer is Memory Bias, or B)
New scene after the school festival. Yusuke is missing and is found by Maruki
The post-festival party is now accompanied by Kasumi, though afterwards you can hang out with your friends
New anime scene too!!
Ryuji's phone call about being the shittiest of shitbags is now voiced
Goro's prince outfit reveal is now voiced
Also, I forgot if I mentioned this before, but Akechi's pfp is now a different colour. It was grey before, but now it's light brownish
Not sure if it just randomly happens in October, but on 10/30, I saw people dressed up in costumes! Nice little detail (I even saw a Jack Frost lmao)
You can also find people walking around Shibuya in costumes!
Haru will instead be outside the school tending to the plants instead on the roof on Sundays if you want to hang out with her
New scene with Makoto and Haru!! It's the girls' showtime!!! Time to kick ass
I only noticed until now, but if you hold down the R2 button, (the button that makes you dash if you're unfamiliar with the PS controller like I am) you'll instantly perform actions such as jumping across ledges and climbing up walls
Sae now has actual cognitive-human bodyguards when she approaches you whilst you wander around the Casino (they actually kinda look similar from the bodyguards at the beginning whilst you're being chased lmao)
In Sae's Dice room, instead of crawling through the vent to reach the backrooms, you can just select "crawl" on the vent and instantly teleport there without having to crawl through since the two rooms are in seperate "areas"
New scene with Kawakami! She informs the class that Maruki will leave on the 18th, so make sure to rank him up to Rank 9 so you can unlock the 3rd semester!
Not sure if I just didn't notice before, but there are now people in the Dark Maze
Didn't notice earlier since my sneaking skills are so good, but safe rooms now bring Palace Security down to 0%, or something like that idk I was on 10% so it could be something like 15% or 20%, who knows lmao (edit: According to
u/Theroonco, apparently this is a new confidant ability from Ohya! Thanks, worst girl, my opinion of you has slightly improved)
The battle areana is now voiced
Just like Maruki, Akechi will warn you that you will not be able to see him after the deadline, so rank him up so you can get to the 3rd semester!!
New Inui question (The answer is A Share of Stolen Goods, or C)
New Chouno question (The answer is a Sword, or B)
Futaba's Mementos scan is now a lot quicker
Also, I guess now is a good time to mention, but areas in Mementos can have certain qualities to them, such as all the shadows turning into the big hulky ones and the floor being weak which makes Morgana slip through them to the floor below. There's also a chance that the Reaper will spawn right away, which Futaba/Morgana will warn you that there's a certain strong shadow you have to look out for. These areas however will go back to normal after you leave them
New Ushimaru question (The answer is Any Age, or A) (And this was technically in the og, but they've reworded it so I'm just gonna put it in anyway lmao)
New Kawakami question (The answer is Crows eyes are hard to see, or B)
Nee Ushimaru question (The answer is because of high altitude, or C)
New Usami question (The answer is Cochleoid, or B)
New scene with Kasumi on 11/17
New scene with Maruki on 11/18, which is the day that he leaves
On 11/20, (the actual 11/20, not the one at the beginning of the game) you can see the SIU Director's face in the phone call thingymajig
True Justice now has actual text, not just question marks (it says "Cooperate as comrades who fight for justice and seek the truth")
Futaba's computer has now been translated in the subtitles, though I didn't get to read that much
New scene with Morgana. After the whole Interrogation Room incident, he asks you if it was Kasumi that helped you
New scene with Kasumi on 11/25
New angle/actions when hanging out at the downstairs Leblanc hideout
The Rats scene in Shido's palace is now voiced (And the rats voices are weird lmao rats rats we're the rats)
You can now eat cheese as a Rat in Shido's palace to regain Sp
After securing the route, Akiren thinks about keeping Akechi's promise to duel with him again (if you make it up to rank 8, that is)
The Eternal Lockpick is now called the Perma-Pick
On days that it is snowing, Snowflakes will fall across the IM screen instead of Sakura Petals (though they disappeared for some reason. Maybe because spring ended?)
New Vegetables for Haru!! Earth Beans that have the same effect as Charge and Star Onions that have the same effect as Concentrate
New scenes with Kasumi right before Exams and during Exams
Mementos Depths now have collectables that you can steal from
If you have reached the skill Live Painting (obtained on Rank 6), you can ask Yusuke to create skill cards in safe rooms
Your teammates speeches in the Velvet Room are now completely voiced
New ending Cutscene
And the entire 3rd semester :))
And that's about it!! Again, if anything is missing or incorrect, feel free to tell me!
Thanks for reading kdjsjs 🤠🤠🤠
Trade season is universally beloved in sports because it is the ultimate marriage of opinion and creativity for sports. Typically, sports talk is limited to ‘what-if’s that are so abstract and variable that’s it’s too difficult for even the most articulate of people to describe their vision. For example, “the Celtics would be better if Marcus Smart shot less three-pointers” is an opinion someone can have, but trying to account for what that would look like on a basketball court is very difficult. We’ve never seen a Marcus Smart that was shy about not shooting three pointers, so to imagine what that player would look like (and by extension to visualize that new player making an impact) is not only difficult but also uninteresting. We know Marcus Smart will likely never be shy about taking three-pointers so the unreality of that situation makes debating or imagining that idea seem more bland and less worth thinking about.
Trade ideas are an exploration in possible realities. Other teams’ players are fungible, unlike imagining what our players would be like if they were different. It’s much more easy to see a new player affecting a team’s composition than the changes of current Celtics player. If you say, “I think the Celtics should trade for Hassan Whiteside”, people understand that and are way more interested in it than “I think Kelly Olynyk should start focusing on getting blocks” because it’s a scenario that has so much more reality to it. It gives everyone a clear vision of the changes you are looking for, because the players you are talking about actually exist. All that’s left to do is to debate what will happen to them when exposed to the miasma of “team chemistry”.
Trade season is fun, because it gives us a chance to show other people our vision of the team in an intellectually currency that makes sense to everyone. Even more so, it allows us to express something of ourselves in the medium of sports; an opportunity to communicate a little bit of our values and thoughts to other people. Really it’s one of the more creative forms of communication that sports talk has.
So with that said, the point of an appealing trade is how it fits into reality. You need to be able to peel back the curtain and show people a different reality where Cell murdered Trunks and stole the time machine, Rick didn’t Cronenberg the world, and CJ McCollum got flipped for Avery Bradley and picks. The sky just can’t be green. What makes a trade great is when you can place the trace paper reality of a deal over the backing of real world and it mostly fits. So let’s take a look at what the ‘real world’ looks like.
| Player | 2016-2017 | 2017-2018 | 2018-2019 | 2019-2020 |
| Al Horford | $26,540,100 | $27,734,405 | $28,928,709 | $30,123,014 (PO) |
| Amir Johnson | $12,000,000 | $15,600,000 (CH) | | |
| Tyler Zeller | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 (NG) | $12,000,000 (CH) | |
| Avery Bradley | $8,269,663 | $8,808,989 | $13,213,484 (CH) | |
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,587,132 | $6,261,395 | $9,392,093 (CH) | |
| Jae Crowder | $6,286,408 | $6,796,117 | $7,305,825 | $7,815,533 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $5,000,000 | $9,500,000 (CH) | | |
| Jaylen Brown | $4,743,000 | $4,956,480 | $5,169,960 (TO) | $6,534,829 (TO) |
| Marcus Smart | $3,578,880 | $4,538,020 | $13,614,060 (CH) | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $3,094,013 | $9,282,039 (CH) | | |
| Terry Rozier | $1,906,440 | $1,988,520 | $3,050,390 (TO) | $9,151,170 (CH) |
| James Young | $1,825,200 | $2,803,507 (CH) | | |
| Demetrius Jackson | $1,450,000 | $1,384,750 (NG) | $1,544,951 (NG) | $1,676,735 (TO) |
| Jordan Mickey | $1,223,653 | $1,471,382 (NG) | $1,600,520 (TO) | $3,040,988 (CH) |
| R.J. Hunter (waived) | $1,200,240 | | | |
| Gerald Green | $980,431 | $1,471,382 (CH) | | |
| Ben Bentil (waived) | $250,000 | | | |
| Guerschon Yabusele | | $2,247,468 | $2,348,484 | $2,449,638 (TO) |
| Ante Zizic | | $1,645,236 | $1,719,204 | $1,793,310 (TO) |
| 2017 Pick #3 | | $5,645,442 | $5,899,500 | $6,153,420 (TO) |
| 2018 Pick #10 | | | $3,164,202 | $3,306,618 |
| 2018 Pick #27 | | | $1,473,426 | $1,539,804 |
| 2019 Pick #18 | | | | $2,172,672 |
| 2019 Pick #27 | | | | $1,525,038 |
| Total | $92,935,160 | $120,135,132 | $105,787,180 | $68,738,637 |
| Cap Projection | $94,143,000 | $103,000,000 | $105,000,000 | $106,000,000 |
| Current Space | $1,207,840 | -$17,135,132 | -$787,180 | $37,261,363 |
PO = Player Option, TO = Team Option, NG = Non-Guaranteed Money, CH = Cap Hold You’ve probably taken a look at this and thought, woah, the Celtics are 16M over the cap? Well, technically because of what’s known as cap holds. Cap holds are the counter-balance to teams having ‘Bird Rights’ on their own free agents. Cap holds take up cap space until the team either “renounces” these Bird Rights (effectively stating, we won’t be resigning this player in a way that makes us go over the salary cap) or resigns the player.
I’ve included the cap holds for all of the Celtics free agents here, but many of them will almost certainly be renounced. A more accurate portrayal is listed below, with this year’s cap holds renounced (except for Kelly Olynyk who is a restricted free agent) and Tyler Zeller 2018 Cap hold pulled because he will likely be waived for cap purposes if he’s still on the team this offseason.
| Player | 2016-2017 | 2017-2018 | 2018-2019 | 2019-2020 |
| Al Horford | $26,540,100 | $27,734,405 | $28,928,709 | $30,123,014 (PO) |
| Amir Johnson | $12,000,000 | | | |
| Tyler Zeller | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 (NG) | | |
| Avery Bradley | $8,269,663 | $8,808,989 | $13,213,484 (CH) | |
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,587,132 | $6,261,395 | $9,392,093 (CH) | |
| Jae Crowder | $6,286,408 | $6,796,117 | $7,305,825 | $7,815,533 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $5,000,000 | | | |
| Jaylen Brown | $4,743,000 | $4,956,480 | $5,169,960 (TO) | $6,534,829 (TO) |
| Marcus Smart | $3,578,880 | $4,538,020 | $13,614,060 (CH) | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $3,094,013 | $9,282,039 (CH) | | |
| Terry Rozier | $1,906,440 | $1,988,520 | $3,050,390 (TO) | $9,151,170 (CH) |
| James Young | $1,825,200 | | | |
| Demetrius Jackson | $1,450,000 | $1,384,750 (NG) | $1,544,951 (NG) | $1,676,735 (PO) |
| Jordan Mickey | $1,223,653 | $1,471,382 (PO) | $1,600,520 (PO) | $3,040,988 (CH) |
| R.J. Hunter (waived) | $1,200,240 | | | |
| Gerald Green | $980,431 | | | |
| Ben Bentil (waived) | $250,000 | | | |
| Guerschon Yabusele | | $2,247,468 | $2,348,484 | $2,449,638 (TO) |
| Ante Zizic | | $1,645,236 | $1,719,204 | $1,793,310 (TO) |
| 2017 Pick #3 | | $5,645,442 | $5,899,500 | $6,153,420 (TO) |
| 2018 Pick #10 | | | $3,164,202 | $3,306,618 |
| 2018 Pick #27 | | | $1,473,426 | $1,539,804 |
| 2019 Pick #18 | | | | $2,172,672 |
| 2019 Pick #27 | | | | $1,525,038 |
| Total | $92,935,160 | $90,760,243 | $93,787,180 | $68,738,637 |
| Cap Projection | $94,143,000 | $103,000,000 | $105,000,000 | $106,000,000 |
| Current Space | $1,207,840 | $12,239,757 | $11,212,820 | $37,261,363 |
Renounce the rights to Kelly Olynyk and waive Tyler Zeller before his money guarantees, and the cap sheet looks like this.
| Player | 2016-2017 | 2017-2018 | 2018-2019 | 2019-2020 |
| Al Horford | $26,540,100 | $27,734,405 | $28,928,709 | $30,123,014 (PO) |
| Amir Johnson | $12,000,000 | | | |
| Tyler Zeller | $8,000,000 | | | |
| Avery Bradley | $8,269,663 | $8,808,989 | $13,213,484 (CH) | |
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,587,132 | $6,261,395 | $9,392,093 (CH | |
| Jae Crowder | $6,286,408 | $6,796,117 | $7,305,825 | $7,815,533 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $5,000,000 | | | |
| Jaylen Brown | $4,743,000 | $4,956,480 | $5,169,960 (TO) | $6,534,829 (TO) |
| Marcus Smart | $3,578,880 | $4,538,020 | $13,614,060 (CH) | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $3,094,013 | | | |
| Terry Rozier | $1,906,440 | $1,988,520 | $3,050,390 | $9,151,170 (CH) |
| James Young | $1,825,200 | | | |
| Demetrius Jackson | $1,450,000 | $1,384,750 (NG) | $1,544,951 (NG) | $1,676,735 (TO) |
| Jordan Mickey | $1,223,653 | $1,471,382 (NG) | $1,600,520 (TO) | $3,040,988 (CH) |
| R.J. Hunter (waived) | $1,200,240 | | | |
| Gerald Green | $980,431 | | | |
| Ben Bentil (waived) | $250,000 | | | |
| Guerschon Yabusele | | $2,247,468 | $2,348,484 | $2,449,638 (TO) |
| Ante Zizic | | $1,645,236 | $1,719,204 | $1,793,310 (TO) |
| 2017 Pick #3 | | $5,645,442 | $5,899,500 | $6,153,420 (TO) |
| 2018 Pick #10 | | | $3,164,202 | $3,306,618 |
| 2018 Pick #27 | | | $1,473,426 | $1,539,804 |
| 2019 Pick #18 | | | | $2,172,672 |
| 2019 Pick #27 | | | | $1,525,038 |
| Total | $92,935,160 | $73,478,204 | $93,787,180 | $68,738,637 |
| Cap Projection | $94,143,000 | $103,000,000 | $105,000,000 | $106,000,000 |
| Current Space | $1,207,840 | $29,521,796 | $11,212,820 | $37,261,363 |
| 1-6 Year Max | $22,168,004 | $25,750,000 | $26,250,000 | $26,500,000 |
| 7-9 Year Max | $26,601,605 | $30,900,000 | $31,500,000 | $31,800,000 |
| 10 Year Max | $31,035,206 | $36,050,000 | $36,750,000 | $37,100,000 |
Some disclaimers and assumptions about this numbers.
- Rookie scales deals from the 2018-2019 season on will be subject to a new rookie scale that has not been reported yet. Current numbers are using old rookie scale numbers with reported changes for 2017-2018.
- All draft picks, (including this year’s Net’s pick) are estimated based on where they will fall. A higher pick would denote higher salary by the rookie scale.
- This assumes both Zizic and Yabusele will come over next year which is not a given.
- Cap Projections (particularly those of later years) will likely increased with reported expanded definitions of BRI which is used to calculate cap numbers.
Think of the cap sheet as a the framework of the reality, and now think about what you think the team’s goals should be going forward. Some good questions to start figuring out where you might stand…
Should the Celtics give Isaiah Thomas (Possibly ALL-NBA this year) a maximum contract when he is 29 years old?
Probably the best place to start is what will be the most emotional discussion of the Celtics’ future. Where does Isaiah Thomas fit in and how much will he be worth? The future tense of that question is important because there is no doubt that 2015-2017 Isaiah Thomas is worthy of a maximum player contract. He is the engine that makes the Celtics go and somehow got better even when self-proclaimed experts (shuffles nervously) picked him as a regression candidate. Beyond that, Thomas is the emotional bedrock of a fanbase. We as fans love IT and the feeling seems to be mutual. To callously reduce the emotional value of that player attachment to dollar and year figures not only feels basic, but gross. Cheering for laundry is no fun, and everyone wants a world where IT continues an improbable HOF career here well into his 30s. If you are someone who sees that path forward, you want to batten down the salary cap hatches and take care of business before he hits FA in 2018.
However, there’s another camp that might point out that Isaiah Thomas is 5’9” and needs to rely on his athleticism more than perhaps anyone in the league to get shots off. Additionally, players who have a strange quirks like this to their game tend to be hit the hardest by crossing the threshold into 30. The Celtics are positioned to have a young core going forward with plenty of draft picks, and putting more help around Isaiah will likely require cuts from that incoming youth. A misstep by doubling-down on an ineffective Thomas would not only destroy the Celtics cap space going forward, but likely eliminate most of the sizable advantages granted by the Nets picks. The Celtics have hit the threshold of the rebuild where the way forward is too murky for a consensus, and incorrect moves are much more punishing than good moves are helpful. If you see IT’s situation more this way, you might be thinking more about flexibility and maybe even trading him while his value is high.
Were Isaiah Thomas a free agent last year or this year, this decision might have been simpler than it will be next year. Who knows? Maybe Thomas will continue to improve and the decision will be taken from the Celtics’ hands. But the path forward requires some decisions to be made this offseason, and that requires predicting what you think you are going to do with Isaiah Thomas, the man who built his career on making people who doubt him look stupid.
Are The Nets Picks Building Blocks or Ammunition?
The Celtics are set to receive their third infusion of Nets-subsidized talent this offseason, and it projects to be the most impactful one yet. James Young will likely go down as a high-upside swing that failed (for better or for worse). Jaylen Brown looks capable and promising, but All-Star aspirations for him are a hope, not a given. This year’s pick swap hopes to net (no pun intended) the Celtics the blue-chip prospect that they’ve missed on during their last few lottery trips. This is how many other teams see this as well, and several teams with all-stars are rumored to be open for business if the Celtics are willing to put that pick on the table. Most level-headed Celtics fans acknowledge the Celtics are 1-3 steps removed from contention without injury aid, and the internal debate seems to be whether the Celtics should aim to utilize the primes of their best current players (Al Horford, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder) to reach for that contention now, or patiently (and without guarantee) trade those peak years for a more conservative, youth oriented approach.
Aiming to contend right away makes things pretty straight forward. In those instances the Celtics should prioritize attaining large infusion of talent over the next year and rely on the avenues that will make those most viable. For example, cap space remaining open for 2016 will allow for the chasing of big free agent acquisitions. Tossing the Brooklyn picks into deals for free agents would get the Celtics the big boy seat at any trade talk table.
However, if you think the Celtics have the opportunity to build something rare and lasting through the draft, you might be considering what the point in holding onto win-now pieces like IT and Horford would be. Maybe, you consider moving them for less polished, yet younger pieces, even though it might affect how the team is viewed. Moving Al, in particular, would raise questions about what kind of a team detonates their squad after a big free agent signing.
Maybe you’re someone who thinks that everyone gets that this is a business and there would be no hard feelings over tough decisions. Maybe, instead you’re a big advocate for Bill Simmons’ “secret” of basketball and think that a team needs continuity and chemistry to hold their roster together. Either way, the Celtics are going to makes decisions with these Nets picks over the next two years, and it’s largely going to be influenced on which iteration of the team they think is going to have the best chance to win.
What Should The Celtics Obligation to This Year’s Current Team Be?
The future tense is all well and fine, but at what point do the Celtics owe it to their current squad (a team with an outside shot at have two rounds worth of home court advantage) to be the best they can be? Players get hurt, teams catch bad match-ups and other lucky things can happen that determine a championship. Given that the Celtics would need more luck than most pseudo contenders to reach the promised land, but matchups are everything in the playoffs and the Celtics have the personnel to give most top teams that aren’t the Cavs and Jazz a lot of trouble.
The other side of that coin is the sad truth that this Celtics squad is facing some very long odds to be considered championship hopefuls, and buying support for this squad based on injury luck might be akin to making a bet at the roulette table on your way to cash out of the casino. You’re already coming out ahead, so why try to have it all? The next Celtics championship is very likely to not be this squad, so why not save those second round draft picks for a time when they might be able to contribute to that championship run?
You might think the Celtics should use picks to go get a rebounder or wing shooting. You might think the Celtics should hold tough and just let this team suffer an expected (but disappointing) second round loss in the interest of defending assets. Whatever your take, the Celtics spending habits in the next month will likely point to how the FO feels about this team’s shot.
What Does It Mean?
Once you’ve answered the questions, you’re ready to put together a trade profile for yourself. Let’s take me, for example. Here’s where I fall on these big questions discussed above:
- I think there’s a path for the Celtics to be a championship contender with a bonafide max free agent and an extra move or two.
- I think the Celtics shouldn’t trade any Nets picks before draft night. Nothing big is likely to change and the team will have more information then. The DVE has made some of the in season trades more impotent anyway, so it’s unlikely for the Celtics to be getting a home run trade out of an in-season Nets pick trade. If the Celtics still don’t have another big name after FA, then the Nets picks can be loosened a bit, but there’s not a great reason to do
- I love IT and think he can be a max year contract guy for at least 3 years, so I would want to make a run at maximizing the cap space this year before we lose space to IT, Smart and Bradley’s cap holds.
- The Celtics have enough talent stashed and in the pipeline with drafts that I think it’s worth parting with some minor assets in case LeBron’s cyborg “Check Engine” light comes on, and/or Draymond kicks Eric Gordon’s wedding tackle off in Round 3.
These points means I’m going to be focusing on trades that centralize on preserving or adding to cap space and flexibility in the 2017 off season and trade deadline. I think that this is probably going to be the gameplan for the Celtics front office going forward, so I think it makes a lot of sense to consider that when thinking about trades. That said, I’m also willing to move minor assets for a little bit of help. The extra “two-way” D-League roster spots will be helpful, but Abdel Nader has been surprisingly effective, and the Celtics are projected to have three 2nd round picks going forward. As a matter of fact, let’s take a look at the pick situation.
| Projected Picks | First Rounders | 2nd Rounders |
| 2017 | BRK | MIN, LAC, CLE |
| 2018 | BRK, BOS | BOS (owed to OKC, but protected 31-55) |
| 2019 | BOS, LAC (Lottery Protected), MEM (Protected 1-8) | BOS (owed to MEM, but protected 31-55), DET |
| 2020 | BOS | BOS, MIA |
That’s the end of my trade spiel, but if you’d like to hang around, I’ve got some trades that I think could help the Celtics achieve (what I believe to be) their aims of getting better this season for low end draft assets, redundant pieces, and maintaining their flexibility for the 2016 offseason with Griffin, Hayward, Millsap,
and Kevin Durant, oh god I’m sorry please don’t yell at me. | The Trade | BOS | DAL |
| Receives | Andrew Bogut | Tyler Zeller, 2017 MIN 2nd and/or other second round draft sweeteners |
This one has been kicked around so much that it’s nearing parody, but part of the reason for that is because it makes a lot of sense. The Celtics get expiring-contract help to shore up the rebounding and rim protection and the Mavs get compensation for a warm body during a lost tank season. Maybe the Mavs want his bird rights, but I think they are beginning to understand the writing on the wall, and throwing money at an aging, oft-injured guy is usually ill advised. Bogut, a very good big passer, would also be a good fit for the Celtics “hit the paint and kick out” system.
| The Trade | BOS | PHX |
| Receives | PJ Tucker | Tyler Zeller, 2017 MIN 2nd and/or other second round draft sweeteners |
Now’s probably a good time to explain that you should probably get used to seeing Zeller’s name. His hefty salary and status as a non-rotation player mean that he will be in a lot of these trades. This trade would make the Celtics smaller, but Tucker has the same kind of strength and “fuck you” attitude that we see from Jae Crowder, allowing him to plug holes across three different positions. He’s having a brutal shooting year, but given the spacing of the bench and the brutal defensive stints that Gerald Green has had this year, he could shore up some of the wing depth issues the Celtics have. Players like Tucker command some value, however, and I could see other top teams bidding for his skills. Maybe more than makes sense for the Celtics to give up...
| The Trade | BOS | DEN |
| Receives | William Norman Barton | Tyler Zeller, 2019 LAC 1st, Celtics 2018 1st, MIN 2nd |
Here is one of the weirder trades I could come up with. Denver finds themselves in a “not-unsimilar” situation to what the Celtics have been, flush with young assets, and capable vets on good contracts, but quickly running out of roster spots. Barton has a year left on his mondo cheap deal after this one, in which he will be in line for a substantial raise. Denver has Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Danilo Gallanari, and Wilson Chandler all set to receive large helpings of wing minutes, to say nothing of their two first round picks coming in. Everyone is under contract for multiple years, so it makes sense for Denver to make paying Barton someone else’s problem while collecting a healthy trove of assets for his nifty contract. The Celtics get a scoring wing whose tiny contract can easily be accounted around. Even though taking on 2017-18 salary is a cardinal sin during this trade deadline, Barton is the rare player on a contract low enough for the Celtics to find creative accounting measures (stash Yabu an extra year, waive Jackson and/or Mickey) to keep him and maintain maximum cap space. Barton is an excellent 6th man type scorer, good shooter, has the requisite size to plug the Celtics wing hole, and the quickness to give Brad some lineup flexibility. What’s more, Barton would hit the market when the Celtics were totally capped out anyway. The two first round picks are deceiving, because protections and high win projections make them less valuable, but it would still be a good haul for a guy who only 1 ⅓ years left on his contact. What’s more, the Celtics would have his Bird Rights to hold a talented core together.
| The Trade | BOS | ORL |
| Receives | Serge Ibaka, Mario Hezonja | Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller, 2019 LAC pick (or sweeten with picks to taste) |
This is the trade most likely to get me yelled at in the comments, and I admit at first blush, trading Avery Bradley’s cheap-o deal for an expiring contract isn’t a great look. But you have to give something to get something, and Ibaka fit the Celtics for a lot of different reasons. He’s a very good big shooter, capable rebounder, and an excellent rim protector to put next to Horford’s great shot blocking. The Celtics would be dealing Bradley a year early for value and to avoid a sticky 2018 situation where they will have to pay major money to two of their three main guards. Since Thomas returned from injury on December 16th, the Celtics have a nearly identical PPP differential with Smart on the floor as Thomas’s partner (+0.061) as compared to Bradley (+.058) per NBAwowy.com with a fair portion coming in starts since Bradley has been out. Smart is also a more capable standalone PG, with the team netting a +0.148 rating in the 418 possessions when Smart was on the floor with IT or AB, compared to a -0.074 for the team in the 217 poss when Bradley played without Smart or IT.
This means I lean toward Bradley being the most tradeable of the guards, which is a little strange, because many of the league reports I’ve seen have Bradley as more of a commodity than Smart. I feel that Bradley should headline any trade packages where a member of the core is involved, especially given that his value seems.
This deal with Orlando gives the Celtics a shot to look at a damaged scoring prospect in Mario Hezonja, who’s found himself glued to the bench for much of his time in Orlando. I’ve got to say that I’d like to see what the ‘Brad Stevens juvenation machine’ could do for him. This trade would require Orlando to eat a little crow on their deal offseason for Serge, as they aren’t getting the return that they sent out to acquire him in Victor Oladipo and the 11th pick. However, Bradley gives them some bonafide backcourt talent that they had been badly lacking. AB doesn’t need the ball, so you can still pursue PG (deepest positions in the league) to flesh out your rotation, but he can also play next to Evan Fournier if you want to move Never Google to the 2. The Magic get a solid return on an expiring deal and a prospect they seemed to have soured on.
The Celtics get out ahead of a problem that would have materialized in 2018, get to see what an Ibaka Horford frontcourt looks like, and regain some Nets pick trade leverage for teams who were tripling down on them not being able to use the pick due to the large amount of guards atop the draft. They get a former top-5 draft pick and wing prospect, and most importantly, further flexibility in the 2017 offseason. The Celtics will have the bird rights to Ibaka, so if they whiff on top level free agents, they will be able to bring Ibaka back without it costing Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerbko, or other free agents the Celtics might have had to renounce to sign him. Ibaka’s cap hold will also only be $18M which stands to be less than he might command on the open market. The Celtics could generate a little more cap space wiggle room (not much, but it might be important) by agreeing to terms with him and then signing a deal with him after handling all the other business. All of this, come without the Celtics having to cost themselves a bite at the Blake Griffin
or Kevin Durant apple as Ibaka will be a UFA. Ibaka could possibly walk before the Celtics get their business done the Celtics would be sans Bradley with nothing but Mario Hezonja to show for it, but Ibaka would likely agree to hang around for a couple of days if you offer to pay him handsomely when you strike out, and I think that kind of backstop would be worth the risk, particularly when you pair it with an ability to retain impact players like Kelly Olynyk.
This would be more of a risk, but if you are planning on giving Avery Bradley 20M+ in 2018 when it’s time to pay IT and Smart, the worst case scenario of this plan isn’t that much different.
TL;DR
Trade season can be a lot of fun, and you can save yourself some hassle by figuring out where you stand on big picture team questions. IT’s 2018 payday, the Nets picks, and 2016-17 Celtics squad’s chance are all factors you should consider when constructing your own trades. Also, I put some at the bottom. Apologies to Robert Covington, whom I couldn’t find a good trade for.
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